Sports betting has evolved greatly over the years. So much so that long time winning strategies may not be that useful anymore. This article helps you understand the current betting market strategy and how to profit from it.
Fade the public
‘Fade the public’ is a popular long time strategy which means betting against popular teams. Based on this system, professional sports bettors used to visit different sports bars and participate in discussions about various sporting events to find out which teams are certain to win and thus cover the spread. Once he’s sure there’s a strong fan basis for a certain team, he places a wager on the opposite side. While this technique was once profitable, it no longer is.
This is because in 2004-2005, some online betting sites realized internet gambling was nearing its peak with many new players registering and opening accounts. While some sites offered cash bonuses and bets with positive expectations (+EV bets) to attract new players, some sites changed their focus entirely. They decided that professional bettors benefited clients more over time and concentrated on the concept that no matter how much you win, you are paid in a timely and hassle free way.
Such sites started posting odds a complete day before Las Vegas and offering unheard of betting limits with lightning fast payouts. These sites are leaders in professional action and can’t get away with the old trick of shading lines to increase profit.
They instead work hard to find a line where smart money no longer has betting interests. They move lines as bets come in till they have a ‘sharp line’ and after this, line fluctuations are minor and neither side is a plus EV bet.
Recreational sites should adjust lines
While there are few professional sites around which can cap well enough to spot opening lines, there are thousands of recreational sites which know how to cap the market. While recreational sites offer poor lines and try shading the line, they end up getting hit with an arsenal of small and midsized bets forcing them to follow a professional sites’ lead. They should adjust lines so that smart money or those following smart money no longer have an interest.
No matter whether it is a professional site or not, the line last available before the start of the game or the closing line was a betting proposition where neither side was +EV. While fading the public may be better than blind picking teams, it does not result in a profit in the long term in today’s betting market.
If it does lead to a profit, it’s because the betting market hasn’t been spotted yet, and will correct itself in a week’s time or because the bettor experiences short term variance which regresses towards the mean in time.
Just like fading the public is no longer profitable, betting small home underdogs, betting on other profitable systems and betting on the ranked favorite underdogs against non-ranked favorites has dried up. All this is attributed to today’s betting market where smart and not recreational money moves the lines.
How to win in the current betting market
Derivative betting derived from a larger betting market, is the most profitable, non-handspring intensive approach for winning in the present betting market. For example, if your favorite prop bets in NFL football on which team scores first, the prop is a close derivative of the betting line on the game’s first half total and point spread. Derivatives are profitable as while large markets constantly adjust towards efficiency, the derivative market lags behind.
Teasers also help to profit in the current betting market, which are not difficult to learn and offer a great place to start finding +EV bets.